67 Million to one
Outlier events lie beyond our comprehension. They are so far out there on the wings of the bell-shaped curve that we believe they cannot happen.
So we tempt fate and take larger risks than we should in our investments, in our behavior, in our personal lives.
The Black Swandiscusses this phenomenon, and is a wonderful reminder of the need for conservative approaches to minimize the results of the potential occurrence of seemingly improbable events that will do untold damage to our portfolio.
Sixty-seven million to one odds is a pretty safe bet.
I love those odds when placing a trade in the financial markets.
If your investment philosophy,however, is “no one trade idea or investment will ever make me or break me” then you can never take a “bet the ranch” posture on any one trade.
That is the one sure way to avoid getting blindsided when the improbable occurs.
Personal Finance Blog
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